blue skies ahead?
Wednesday, September 14, 2005
"A separate cabin for servants"

An Indian royal is banking on his heritage to fill seats in his latest
venture -- a luxury domestic airline that will even have a separate cabin for
servants.

...

"We're targeting the type or person who drives in a Mercedes," he told The Associated Press in a telephone interview from Mysore.

The bulk of the seats will essentially be what other airlines sell as first class -- seats will be 54 inches (137 centimeters) wide, about triple the standard 18-inch (46-centimeter) economy seat, he said, adding that fares will be competitive for their class.

There will, however, be an economy cabin of between 8 and 15 seats "for servants," Wodeyar said.

"There are people who many want to travel with one or two servants," he explained. "But they don't have to fly in the same cabin."

Um, 'servants'?

A luxury airline is not new, but the incumbents have catered more for a slightly elevated class, rather than the royalty targeted by the Maharaja's 'Palace in the Sky'. I wonder which routes he'll start with, given he will have to comply with the DGCA's route dispersal guidelines.. I can't imagine too many royalty (or people of their 'class') wishing to fly to Gauhati or Imphal.

And what's this business of 'servants'? Hello, what century are you living in O exalted Maharaja?

Getting down to numbers,
... he said the startup cost should be about US$100 million (euro81.46 million) and that initially the airline will have only two planes. The fleet should grow to 21 jets within the first 18 months of operation, he said, adding that the airline would eventually fly to more than three dozen cities.

$100 million for 2 aircraft? Something's not right. Considering Air Deccan secured $40 million in their second round of funding (and they're not doing too badly either) I struggle to comprehend where he got that figure from. Even considering that the cabin interior will not be as spartan as that of an Air Deccan, it still seems a touch too much. Perhaps he's just making a show by flashing some insane sum around. Memories of IndiGo...

And even if it's $100m, where's he going to get that money from? Our man is worth Rs 1522 cr, or about $340 million, but my guess is very little of that is liquid (10%?), and the rest is valuation of his properties and other assets.

Bottomline, he has some money to launch an airline in my opinion (but not $100m), he has grand plans, which will need a big dose of reality over the next few days and weeks. And he needs some good airline advisors (and not whom he's talking to now). And he will probably need to look for some aircraft soon.

Monday, September 12, 2005
Paramount launches (and this website relaunches)

Paramount Airways launched its first flight last week (Sept 7th).

With the new entrant in the civil aviation sector, Paramount Airways, securing the licence to import the 70-seater Embraer jet, the all Business class seats configuration airline, is set to take-off with its inaugural flight between Madurai and Coimbatore on September 7.

M. Thiagarajan, Managing Director of Paramount Airways, told The Hindu here on Thursday that the Union Minister of State for Civil Aviation, Praful Patel, would inaugurate the maiden Madurai-Coimbatore flight. From September 8, the airline will begin daily flights linking Coimbatore to New Delhi and then on to Kochi.

It remains to be seen how far Paramount will actually get. Its focus at the start is on the "long thin" routes, sectors that haven't been served by traditional carriers that focus on volume. I believe this is a good strategy for a number of reasons:

  1. You have a small number of aircraft, with a small number of seats. Yes, the breakeven load factor will be higher, but the absolute number of seats you need to fill will be lower than for a larger aircraft. Chances are: with their 70 seater aircraft, they will need to fill just about 50 to 55 seats per flight. Shouldn't be too hard.
  2. You don't fight with other carriers for passengers, and therefore you don't get into a price war. When you're starting out, even if you have deep pockets, people like Jet and Kingfisher have even deeper pockets and will kill you. Better keep a low profile till you have a critical mass of assets and customers, before trying to steal market share from the incumbents.
  3. You don't fight for airport slots. Look at the logjam at Mumbai and Delhi now, and you'll see what I mean. The congestion plays havoc with your schedules and punctuality. If your target customers are business men, you need both to ensure survival.
Pricing - I don't know. Coimbatore to Delhi at Rs 13,999 (USD 320) is high for a flight time of just under 3 hours. Well, high by international standards, but considering their value lies in the class of service they plan, it might make for a competitive concept.

Their website sucks royally. It's really bad. I little bird told me that I7's management is very, shall we say, tight-fisted. The focus on their booking system and website is less on customer service and reliability, and more on cost per transaction. Fyi, their booking engine is the same one powering Kingfisher (and was built for Kingfisher). If the booking engine does not perform as required, there's going to be a ruckus.

Friday, March 11, 2005
Air Deccan tickets at HPCL outlets

...

The oil major has tied up with Air Deccan for setting up ticketing kiosks in its fuel stations.

HPCL has offered the space to the airline as part of the company's sales promotion exercise for aviation turbine fuel. It has also approached other airlines with a similar offer.

Air Deccan, on the other hand, views this as a non-traditional ticket distribution mechanism which will be key for its growth as it is now looking at spreading its operations to smaller locations.

The move will help the low cost carrier expand its network considerably as it currently depends, mainly on Internet and call centre based ticket sales. The carrier, however, has marginal penetration amongst travel agents, as appointing agents with high commission fee would add to its cost of operation.

...

Friday, March 04, 2005
InterGlobe grounds budget airline

At a time when companies are falling over each other to set up an airline in the country, InterGlobe Enterprises, one of the first corporates to get clearance from the government to start an airline, has put its plans on hold.

“We have decided not to go ahead with the plan to start the airline for now,” Rahul Bhatia, managing director, InterGlobe Enterprises, said here today.

The government gave an in-principle clearance to InterGlobe Enterprises in April 2004 to start operations — way ahead of many companies that are planning to enter the airline business in the country at present.

According to Bhatia, the company has decided to put its plans on hold as it thinks that there is excess capacity generated in the market as a result of the launch of a number of airlines.

“The excess capacity is the reason. When we decided to start the business there were not many players. But the situation is not the same now,” he pointed out.

When asked if the company had completely shelved its plans to start the airline, he said, “It is shelved for now. We are not sure whether we will take a re-look at it or not.”

The domestic aviation sector is on an upswing with the aviation sector projected to grow at over 25 per cent for the next few years. The domestic passenger traffic, in December 2004 touched 3.95 million from 3.10 million in December 2003, registering an increase of 27.2 per cent.

In the last few months India has seen a sudden upsurge in the number of airlines planing to start services. Various prediction by airline industry point out that about 13 airlines would start operations over the next 12 to 18 months. And most of them will follow a low-cost no-frill model.

The airlines that are expected to start services are Air One, Indus Air, Royal Air, East West, Wadia, Kingfisher, Visa, Yamuna, Air India Express and the low cost service by Alliance Air. Airlines like Royal Air and Kingfisher are currently in the process of acquiring aircraft and are expected to start operations soon.

It is also worth noting that some of the existing players have been pressing the government to raise the entry barrier in the airline sector so that non serious players do not make an entry into the sector.

As per the present norms, an airlines required five aircraft and a minimum paid up equity of Rs 30 crore to get a license to operate.

Airlines like Jet Airways and Air Sahara has been petitioning the government for raising the entry level barriers by raising the minimum paid up equity to Rs 250 crore.

SpiceJet to fly to India's smaller cities

India's Royal Airways Ltd, which will start its low-fare SpiceJet carrier in May after being grounded for more than eight years, will seek to tap people wanting to fly in the country's smaller cities.

'There is an opportunity to stimulate new travel because of under capacity' in services to small cities, Jason Bitter, chief operating officer, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. 'There are lots of opportunities for routes in India that are really underserved.'

SpiceJet will seek to sidestep competition from new and existing airlines that fly mostly to the biggest cities of Mumbai, New Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai and Kolkata.

The country's carriers are targeting the growing number of travellers wanting to fly in India, where economic expansion is putting more money in the hands of people. They have cut fares by more than half in the past two years to win rail passengers.

The fastest economic growth in the country in the past 15 years last year is prompting the start of new airlines and the revival of old carriers.

Deccan Aviation Pvt's Air Deccan, India's only low-cost carrier, began flights in September 2003. Beermaker UB Group's planned Kingfisher Airlines starts in May, while discount carrier Go Air will begin operating in September. East West Travel & Trade Links Ltd also aims to restart flights after seven years.

SpiceJet expects to get two of its three leased Boeing Co 737-800 planes, which can seat 189 people in all-economy configuration, in April.

The airline is seeking to tap cities with a population of three million to five million people, Mr Bitter said. Large cities such as Mumbai and New Delhi have populations in excess of 10 million in the world's second-most populous nation, which has more than a billion people.

India's domestic air traffic rose 12 per cent in the year ended March 31, 2003, to a record 14.8 million passengers, according to the government.

The New Delhi-based Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation estimates India's air traffic will rise by five million passengers annually for the next 10 years and the aviation ministry expects domestic traffic to grow 20 per cent each year for the next five years.

Thursday, March 03, 2005
Passengers stranded as Air Deccan puts flights on hold

No-frills carrier Air Deccan, on Wednesday, announced the sudden withdrawal of services to the city till March 9. Nearly 120 passengers booked on Thursday's flight are now left in the lurch. This is the second instance of Air Deccan suspending operations for a prolonged period at short notice since starting flights to Kolkata a couple of months ago.

Though Air Deccan offered no explanation, sources said the Chennai-Kolkata-Chennai sector had been summarily dumped after one of the A-320 aircraft in its fleet was grounded.

The "now on, now off" operations on the Kolkata-Chennai sector has left passengers as well as the travel/trade industry miffed. While they acknowledge that technical glitches can occur, what they don't agree to is the absence of an exigency plan.

"The carrier must augment its fleet and start operations in the sector when there's a degree of confidence to service it properly. Sudden suspension of operations erodes passenger confidence," a travel agent said.

Aviation industry experts, however, pointed out that such risks were part of the low-cost airline business. "Unlike regular carriers, they cannot afford to keep a buffer aircraft. That would jack up costs," an aviation industry source said.

More here.

Aircraft Shortage

The airline industry in India is witnessing a sudden shortage of new generation aircraft for leasing, resulting in a spurt in leasing rates.

According to Kapil Kaul, Chief Executive Officer (India and West Asia) of the Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation (CAPA), the sudden shortage of new generation aircraft for leasing, especially the 737-800s and A320s is a worrying factor for the industry. "Lease charges have been going up by 15 per cent to 20 per cent," Kaul said.

He said the lease charges of a 737-700s and 800s and range between $275,000 and $300,000 per month. According to CAPA, India will have around 400 commercial planes by 2010 compared with 175 currently. Within the next two years, the country will have 100 more planes. This year alone we will see airlines placing orders worth $10 billion from Airbus and Boeing. This is nearly one-third of the total number of aircraft sales worldwide.

More here.

IA may withdraw discount plan, Sahara in fare war

The huge rush of passengers buying its 16-tickets-for-Rs-65,000 is forcing Indian Airlines to contemplate withdrawing the scheme a fortnight after its launch. The scheme was introduced for economy-class passengers on February 16, and the overwhelming response forced the airline to extend the scheme to business class.
[Huh??? Forced? Tell it like it is - if you seized the moment to sell your business class inventory to lock in your revenues, say so...]
Passengers buying the [Air Sahara] Sixer scheme (that offers six domestic air tickets for Rs 36,000) now have the option of buying four family one-way tickets for Rs 10,000 or six family tickets for Rs 15,000. "Most schemes on offer today are targeted at passengers themselves. We are trying to expand the scope of the scheme by including family members," Air Sahara CEO Rono Dutta said.

Friday, February 25, 2005
Q&A: GR Gopinath (Deccan Airways)

Key quotes:

"... both Delhi and Mumbai airports are choked — you cannot get parking slots, terminal gates and landing slots on the runaway. For instance, in Delhi and Mumbai only 25 aircraft can land every hour — that is half the average of any other international airport."

"... the archaic DGCA rules made in 1937, which were made when jets did not exist, need to be changed. The rules add to our cost. For instance, if a Boeing pilot wants to shift to an Airbus, and even if he is experienced, the rules state he still needs to log in 100 hours on an Airbus before flying the aircraft."

"... We also request the government to allow hedging in ATF fuel so that we are protected to some extent on the volatility of the fuel cost."

"I don’t think there will be any problem in selling 1 billion seats in a year — today we are at 16 million. Even today, China has 60 million airline customers. We might need 50,000 flights to achieve the objective. All you need is that the middle-class take a flight three to four times a year and you will reach the magic number. The constraint is not the passengers or the market; it’s the number of aircraft and the infrastructure in the country that is needed to support it. I think you will see the same revolution that hit the telecom sector. Five years ago you could not have imagined your driver with a mobile. Some years later, even he will travel by air."

Fraport Wants Stake in Indian Airport

The aviation industry is regarded as an engine for growth in India. The highly populated country is one of the most attractive markets in Asia behind China - a fact not lost on German airport operator Fraport.

In September 2003, India's government decided to sell 74 percent of India's two major airports - Delhi and Mumbai. Now the government is looking for private companies to invest in the airports' expansion. Fraport is planning to invest a total of €30 to €50 million ($40 to $66 million) for a stake of about 10 percent in one of the two airports. "If we are going to be awarded the contract, we are going to first revise the airport's internal company processes," Thiesen explained. For this purpose, Fraport personnel have to be sent to India, training programs have to be set up, and the infrastructure needs to be improved.

Private airlines contend that liberalizing of aviation policies is pointless if infrastructure is not massively extended at the same time. Metropolitan airports suffered from extreme overload, they say. "If new airlines are to enter the market without infrastructure keeping up, the industry is headed for a disaster," Wolfgang Prock-Schauer, chief executive of the biggest private airline Jet Airways, warned.

More here...

Thursday, February 24, 2005
Air India Express takes delivery of Boeing 737-800

Air India today took delivery of the first of the three Boeing 737-800 for its subsidiary AI Express for operations to the Gulf.

Beginning April end, the AI Express will fly a total of 37 flights a week primarily to Abu Dhabi and Sharjah. Three each of these flights will operate from Mumbai and Delhi, 31 services will operate from Kerala. The national carrier has also lined up a major expansion plan beginning next month with more frequencies and links to various destinations in the US.The airline is planning to connect Chicago and Los Angeles with a daily frequency from March 28 as against six and five services respectively at present. Delhi is to be connected thrice weekly with Los Angeles via Frankfurt while four flights would be operated out of Mumbai, Bhargava said.

Jet Airways - aggressively priced?

"... There is no denying the fact that Jet has carved a niche for itself in a short span of time and is today the country's most preferred airline on any parameter, but what is of concern to the prospective investor is the aggressive pricing by the company. Several issues have hit the market and pricing was never a major issue amongst investors, In the case of Jet, the opinion is divided. One view is that the pricing is very aggressive and that there is nothing left on the table for the investors while the other view is that Jet is playing on the growing Indian tourism market and is also set to gain substantially from the growing economy."

Summary of the analysis of Jet's prospects

Positives:

Negatives:

Also, the IPO of Jet Airways received bids 7.8 times the issue size at the end of the fourth day of bidding. The response trend indicates that 90 per cent of demand is at Rs 1,125, the top end of the price band for bidding.



Airbus sells three A319s to Kingfisher

"Airbus said on Wednesday Indian budget carrier Kingfisher Airlines had signed a contract to buy three A319 aircraft. The deal comes on top of 10 orders for the A320 and options for a further 20 from the same airline, which will start taking deliveries of those planes in April. The A319s will be powered by International Aero Engines V2500s, Airbus said in a statement."

Where are they going to fly these planes??! That's a total of 13 aircraft, and they're buying them, not leasing. I suppose they will get deliveries of these 13 aircraft over a 2 year period. Even then, that's some pretty aggressive purchasing, considering their business model is not proven.



India is fertile soil for budget airlines (The Seattle Times)

As Air Deccan Flight 204 soared away from the runway, Ramana Murthy looked out the window and chatted animatedly on his cell phone. Never mind the rules. At 40, the boyish-looking railway contractor was taking his first airplane trip — and his wife, on the other end of the line, was demanding a full report.

"Is good feeling only," he said in faltering English a few minutes later, a broad grin lighting his face. "No fear. Just like sitting on a bus."

Once regarded as the province of tycoons and maharajahs, air travel is taking off in India. A booming economy and the emergence of no-frills service — modeled after that of low-cost U.S. carriers — are opening the skies to middle-class Indians eager for the conveniences of prosperity and globalization.

With Air Deccan offering fares as low as $11 — and other airlines scrambling to catch up — many Indians now have an alternative to the dirty and overcrowded trains that have long been synonymous with travel in this vast nation of more than 1 billion people.

Read more...


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